Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson faces a potential second consecutive box office disappointment as his live-action Disney film, Moana, opens this weekend with projections well below initial expectations.
Early tracking from Deadline had pegged the film at $85 million for its North American opening weekend, but the latest forecast from Box Office Pro has revised that figure down to a range of $60 million to $70 million. The film was reportedly produced on a budget of $200 million or more, not including marketing costs.
Audience reaction to the film’s Tuesday premiere in Los Angeles was also a concern. The Hollywood Reporter noted that premiere attendees were permitted to post brief reactions on social media, with consensus described as mixed at best and some viewers questioning whether the remake needed to exist.
As of this writing, not enough critical reviews have been published for a Rotten Tomatoes consensus to form.
The animated Moana 2 brought in over $1 billion globally in 2024, though live-action remakes of beloved animated properties have historically underperformed relative to their originals, as seen with How to Train Your Dragon and Snow White.
If the film underperforms significantly, it would follow “The Smashing Machine,” Johnson’s 2025 biographical drama about MMA fighter Mark Kerr, which earned strong critical notices but grossed less than half its production budget at the box office.
